Total: 200 Units
Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox UNDER 8.5 runs
Bet 1.25 Units to win 1 Unit
Two of the best exciting young arms in the game today meet in this one; King Felix Hernandez and Dice-K Matsuzaka. I don't expect either of these two to disappoint, either. Look for a great pitching duel and a score somewhere around 3 - 2 when it is all said and done, well under the 8.5 runs needed to cash in.
Atlanta Braves -1.5 over Washington Nationals
Bet 1.30 Units to win 1 Unit
Pure and simple, the Braves are a flat out better team than the Nationals. They've got a solid arm in Chuck James pitching tonight, as well as home field advantage. A 2+ run victory should be a cake walk.
Colorado Rockies over Los Angeles Dodgers MONEY LINE
Bet 1 Unit to win 1.35 Units
It won't take long for you to figure out how much I love young pitching, and Jason Hirsh is a name that I'm anticipating won't remain a "Who?!?" for too long this season. The kid has the stuff to be dominant, and no offense to the Dodgers who are my pick out of the NL West, but they have a line-up that isn't impossible to dominate. Look for the Rockies upset backed by a solid performance by Mr. Hirsh.
New York Yankees -1.5 over Minnesota Twins
Bet 1 Unit to win 1.05 Units
I'm not a huge Mussina fan, but I like his chances against a Twins lineup that features a few strong bats, but mixed in among a lot of duds. The real reason why this pick is so strong? Ramon Ortiz against that heavy hitting Yankees lineup. Yanks put up 7+ in this one, and if Mussina keeps it halfway respectable, this bet pays off.
RESULTS: 0 Units Won/Lost (200 Units)
Wednesday, April 11, 2007
Explanation of the Units System
As a gambling man, it's only fitting that I post my picks of the day when I see games that jump out at me as good bets.
I'm going to be using the unit system here to keep track of how well/poorly I'm doing. A "unit" usually ranges anywhere between .5% to 3% of your total bankroll, and defines how much the standard amount you bet on a game is. For example, if you have $1000 and like to risk $10 (1%) of your bankroll per game, then $10 is your unit size. Occasionally there are high-percentage plays that you might put 2 or even 3 units on; but this is usually not advised, because you are then overvaluing your multi-unit bets and undervaluing your single unit bets. Betting too much on a single game is suicide, because you'll always lose your biggest bet. How do I know that? Well, assume you bet $200 on a game with your $1000 bankroll (20% on a single game is far too risky) and win. Now you've got $1200. People willing to bet 20% of their bankroll on a game now make the easy connection; "I can bet $400 on the next one, because even if I lose, I only lost that original $200" (This was me a few years ago). Repeat until you lose.
You might be asking how a unit stays consistent when your bankroll fluctuates. A good question, because $10 a game might make sense when you have $1000, but if you win your way up to $2000 or lose your way down to $500, this number might be outdated. The trick is to give yourself re-assessment points. Keep your unit size consistent until you hit one of these points. Sticking with our $1000 bankroll example, re-assessment points would probably be around $750 and $1250. If you fall below $750 or go above $1250, it might be time to adjust your unit size accordingly, as well as setting new evaluation points; such as $600 and $900 for $750, or $1000 and $1500 for $1250.
Money management is the key to successful gambling, and if you do bet on sports, you just need to find a system that works for you. I do highly recommend betting the same amount on almost every game. I will make 2 unit plays (and the occasional 3-unit play I'm sure), but getting above that is too risky.
Happy gambling everyone.
I'm going to be using the unit system here to keep track of how well/poorly I'm doing. A "unit" usually ranges anywhere between .5% to 3% of your total bankroll, and defines how much the standard amount you bet on a game is. For example, if you have $1000 and like to risk $10 (1%) of your bankroll per game, then $10 is your unit size. Occasionally there are high-percentage plays that you might put 2 or even 3 units on; but this is usually not advised, because you are then overvaluing your multi-unit bets and undervaluing your single unit bets. Betting too much on a single game is suicide, because you'll always lose your biggest bet. How do I know that? Well, assume you bet $200 on a game with your $1000 bankroll (20% on a single game is far too risky) and win. Now you've got $1200. People willing to bet 20% of their bankroll on a game now make the easy connection; "I can bet $400 on the next one, because even if I lose, I only lost that original $200" (This was me a few years ago). Repeat until you lose.
You might be asking how a unit stays consistent when your bankroll fluctuates. A good question, because $10 a game might make sense when you have $1000, but if you win your way up to $2000 or lose your way down to $500, this number might be outdated. The trick is to give yourself re-assessment points. Keep your unit size consistent until you hit one of these points. Sticking with our $1000 bankroll example, re-assessment points would probably be around $750 and $1250. If you fall below $750 or go above $1250, it might be time to adjust your unit size accordingly, as well as setting new evaluation points; such as $600 and $900 for $750, or $1000 and $1500 for $1250.
Money management is the key to successful gambling, and if you do bet on sports, you just need to find a system that works for you. I do highly recommend betting the same amount on almost every game. I will make 2 unit plays (and the occasional 3-unit play I'm sure), but getting above that is too risky.
Happy gambling everyone.
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